Apparently corporate ad agencies have realized that despite the millions they’ve spent on denial campaigns, people aren’t buying it. So they’ve changed their messaging. I can’t be critical of this, though I certainly am cynical about what it really means. However there is huge money in developing a new global infrastructure for energy. In developed countries like the US and the EU, this means a new grid and energy efficient transportation, not mention renewables. In under-developed countries it gets more interesting. The correct analogy is the spread of mobile phones.

Before affordable mobile phones, people in poor countries had no means of communicating with each other. Telephone lines and switches were primitive and costly and there was no incentive for telecom companies to invest in these poor economies. So, as mobile phones became ubiquitous even in these countries, it became obvious that they don’t require the networked telecom grids. Just build towers which is far cheaper than running fiber to houses and businesses. They are not tied to telecom grids.

The same will happen with energy. Solar, wind, geothermal, etc. can be localized to a building or a village. It does not require a physical link to a power plant hundreds of miles away. This means that we should see rural electrification in places like Africa which will help them pull out of the vicious cycle of poverty.

The awakening of the corporate giants to energy opportunity that is not tied to fossil fuels will be slow. However their futurists know that the current model is unsustainable, not just on supply issues but also because the vast majority of oil comes from regions that are politically unstable (Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, etc.). As the supply shrinks, the use of oil as an economic weapon will increase, creating instability in oil markets worldwide. Without a serious effort to provide alternative sources on both a national and local level worldwide, we will see wars waged over fossil fuels. As it is, a lot of us believe that the jihad being waged now is really about distribution of energy.

Once you’ve built the plant you don’t need to refuel it. Ever. And there are zero emissions. And they run 24 hours a day forever (no storage problem). And they can’t blow up or leak dangerous radiation.

So what are we waiting for?

While time will tell whether this is the huge breakthrough it appears to be, the reception among informed scientists and engineers is more positive than we usually see when someone makes these kinds of claims.

For me the really interesting local angle of this story is that this research was funded by a ten million dollar donation from a foundation created by Rochester entrepreneur Arunis Chaesonis, founder of Paetec, a very successful telecom based here. Wouldn’t it be great if a breakthrough energy story came out of innovative thinking in Rochester?

One other thing: GM has long had their fuel cell hydrogen car project based in Rochester at a skunkworks operation in Honeoye Falls. The only thing holding back their technology has been a lack of efficient hydrogen production and delivery infrastructure. So this is a double win for Rochester.

Franke is Canadian so maybe things are different across the lake but I doubt it.  Simply put, Gladwell argues that awareness is not enough to change behavior and Franke notes that sometimes a threat or pain point must be reached.

I’ve been noticing a lot more Euro-versions of cars appearing on the streets in Rochester- little tiny Hondas, Toyotas, Fords, etc. These cars are literally a fraction of the size of the SUVs they are hopefully replacing. So why are they appearing now? Could it be $4.25/gallon gas? Even a wealthy SUV driver might have issues with paying five bucks for gas to run out to the store or a movie…

A point I’ve belabored here is that change and response to  climate issues will only be driven by economics. Americans don’t want to believe it will affect us so our politicians won’t act. Awareness and acceptance of the issue is there but there isn’t any urgency- until we get hit in our wallets, painfully.