Battery life is the roadblock in the development of electric vehicles and alternative energy sources that require off-hour storage such as solar and wind power. Lithium ion batteries offer enough instantaneous power but their limited storage life has meant that cars utilizing them require very large numbers of batteries, creating potential problems with weight, possible fire issues and more.

Now, a Stanford scientist’s team think they may have a breakthrough in battery technology that could increase the storage time of lithium ion batteries (like those in laptops) ten-fold. Their breakthrough uses nano-technology to solve a major issue in storage. Estimated time to market is ’several years’. If this is legit I assume a big chunk of VC money is en route that might speed that process up- this is the holy grail in efficient energy technology right now.

I’ve been looking at the hot button issues for blogs like this one for the coming year- not predictions but rather the stories that are unfolding right now, at the beginning of the year. When I started this blog a few years ago there was some debate about warming but the effects and proposed solutions were not totally clear. Now we’re seeing direct effects almost daily around the globe and starting to understand that dealing with this disaster is a global economic challenge rather than a political one. This hodgepodge of stories supports this contention:

• Switchgrass ethanol study shows that this source returns 540% of the energy required to grow and refine it. Corn returns something like 50%. Corn ethanol is not viable.
• The introduction of the $2500 Nano car in India and other emerging economies is going to have a profoundly negative effect of energy prices and generate enormous new emissions as the number of cars on the planet explodes.
• We’re using 2.9 million barrels of oil per day more than 6 years ago, globally. If you think oil at $100 is a story, think about oil at $200. When demand goes up and supply goes down, prices skyrocket.
• Automotive technology is poised for an explosion of innovation this year with the Tesla electric sports car, fuel cells, new biological hydrogen extraction techniques, highly efficient hybrids and plug-in hybrids and more. What does this tell us? That the conspiracy theories of the past that said oil and car companies were killing and/or stifling innovation were true- this stuff didn’t just appear out of thin air.
• Greenland Ice Sheet Scares the Crap Out of Climate Scientists. We’ll be watching the ice globally this year, especially in Grenland where the volume of water held in stasis by the ice sheet is equivalent to the entire Gulf of Mexico (!). Estimates for ocean rise by 2050 due to rapidly accelerating melting and calving of the ice sheet range from 2-6 meters. Goodbye virtually every coastal city worldwide including our nation’s capitol (anyone remember the flooded national Mall last year, New York’s subway floods and the ongoing national shame of Katrina?)
• The weather. It’s impossible to describe how big this story is. Here in Rochester, NY, the famously chilly winter upstate area was 70 degrees earlier this week, breaking all records. Killer tornados in the midwest in January, winter storms with CAT 4 winds (140 mph+) in the Pacific Northwest. Droughts in the southwest and southeast with no reserve water supplies. That’s just this week, folks.
• Water, water, nowhere. Only 1 in 500 Chinese have free access to potable drinking water. In much of the world it is worse. Yes, they have to buy drinking water and it’s not cheap. Repercussions of water issues cross all geographic and economic boundaries.
• Carbon costs. We’re going to have to start measuring the carbon costs of virtually all of our activities and products if we’re going to startle people into awareness of how their own actions are worsening the problem of climate change. I’m not buying organic milk that is shipped across the country when I can get local milk for half the price, dollars and carbon-wise. Look at what you buy and how far it came to get to you. And don’t forget the packaging.
• Freegan culture and the Chinese product backlash. Because of the Chinese toy scandals a lot of parents who don’t have time to worry about environmental issues are questioning the provenance of the products they buy and the immediate response is ‘I’m not buying Chinese’. A secondary response is the rise of freegan culture that says ‘I’m not buying things I don’t need and when I do need something I’m going to look for used or free stuff’. You don’t have to dumpster dive, there’s a huge thrift shop culture out there. Do you really need a new blender when your neighborhood Goodwill probably has ten perfectly good ones for a buck or two?
• Home and automotive energy costs crush economy by limiting disposable income. We’re paying five times as much as ten years ago for heat/AC and gas, yet incomes have not risen much. When you take $300-400 more out of a typical family’s monthly budget because of energy costs that money does not flow into the economy.

These stories are just the ones at the top of my awareness today. There are dozens more, so many in fact, that it is daunting to even write a quirky blog about climate change- it is overwhelming in the reach and impact it already has. Nevertheless I’ll be at it again in 2008.

I’ve long believed that political solutions to the climate crisis will be limited in their impact primarily because of the very short attention span of most politicians, i.e. until their next election and due to the influence peddlars in DC, most of whom are ex-politicos. If we’re going to solve this huge global problem then the markets will have to be the drivers of change.

One big factor in this is our own pocketbooks- we know from the oil crisis in the seventies that it took average Americans screaming bloody murder over gas prices and shortages to see any big change in energy policies. So what will it take now? Let’s look at where gas prices might need to go to drive change.

Gas at the pump prices are about $.30/gallon higher on average than six months ago. assuming an average MPH of 23 this means it costs us about $.013 more per mile to drive. If you drive an average of 1200 miles per month, this increase cost you $15.60 more per month than you would have paid six months ago. Probably not enough to really anger a lot of people in the US.

If we’re at $3.30/gallon now, at what price point do we start getting concerned and/or angry? $4/gallon gas would take another $36.40 out of our monthly budgets (on top of that 15.60). Is this a price tipping point? How about $5/gallon- another $52./month? That might do it.

Admittedly, this is a simplistic calculation. Let’s look a little further. There are approximately 200 million licensed drivers in the US, driving 240 million registered passenger vehicles. If these 200 million drivers are each shelling out an extra $1200/year for fuel (based on $5/gallon pricing), that’s $240 billion that is not entering the ecomomy- it’s being sucked up by the oil industry. Is a quarter of a trillion dollars in lost purchasing power, annually, enough to wake this country up? I sure hope so because it’s coming. They’re already there in Europe.

Finally some other related stories: The recent riots in Myanmar (aka Burma) were triggered by the government removing subsidies on gas prices. They went from pennies a gallon to dollars a gallon overnight and the country exploded. In Venezuela, nut case dictator Hugo Chavez (I’m a liberal but I don’t buy into this guy for a second- nothing but a petty tyrant), subsidizes gas so the populace only pays $.07/gallon. This is the classic ‘bread and circuses’ tactic used to keep the populace blissfully unaware of reality.

Oil is never, ever going to cost less, no matter what new fields are found. We have to change our entire society to end our dependence, quitting cold turkey so to speak.

Here’s innovative thinking, the kind of thing that heralds radical change in the way we view our transportation systems. Business Week announces that Honda is going to introduce a combination of a fuel cell car with a home hydrogen plant that generates hydrogen from natural gas. Not only will the plant fuel the car, it will power the household utility systems with zero emissions and higher efficiency. And not ten years from now- coming in 2008!

First the car:

” a 20-percent increase in fuel economy - to the approximate equivalent of 68 mpg2 combined fuel economy (about 2-3 times the fuel economy of a gasoline-powered car, and 1.5 times that of a gasoline-electric hybrid vehicle, of comparable size and performance);

• a 30-percent increase in vehicle range - to 270 miles;

• a 25-percent improvement in power-to-weight ratio, in part from an approximate 400-pound reduction in the fuel cell powertrain weight, for superior performance and efficiency despite a substantial increase in overall vehicle size;

• a 45-percent reduction in the size of the fuel cell powertrain - nearly equivalent, in terms of volume, to a modern gas-electric hybrid powertrain;

• an advanced new lithium-ion battery pack that is 40 percent lighter and 50 percent smaller than the current-generation FCX’s ultra-capacitor; and

• a single 5,000-psi hydrogen storage tank with 10 percent additional hydrogen capacity than the previous model.

Full details will be set closer to launch, but current plans call for a three-year lease term with a price of $600 per month, including maintenance and collision insurance.”

And the fuel system:

“ Honda Home Energy Station IV

Of course, while California’s Hydrogen Highway is a leading initiative in developing a hydrogen distribution infrastructure, fuel supply will still be a huge issue for the first generation of FCX owners. To ease this transition for early adopters, Honda decided to build a home-based hydrogen generation and fueling device — which has evolved into an energy-saving power station for the whole home.

Running on a home’s existing natural gas supply, the Home Energy Station IV produces and stores hydrogen, while providing heat, hot water and electricity to an average-size home.

The Home Energy Station IV can reduce both cost and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for the consumer. Compared to the average U.S. consumer’s home with grid-supplied electricity and a gasoline-powered car, a home using Home Energy Station IV to help produce heat and electricity and also to refuel an FCX Clarity can reduce CO2 emissions by an estimated 30 percent and energy costs by an estimated 50 percent.

“Honda is striving to address the need for a refueling infrastructure for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles,” said Ben Knight, vice president of Honda R&D Americas. “The Home Energy Station represents one promising solution to this issue, while offering the added benefit of heating and powering the home more efficiently.”

The natural gas is reformed to produce hydrogen, which is then run directly through to a fuel cell stack to generate electricity for the home and enough heat to run the hot water supply. When immediate consumption is not needed, the hydrogen is refined, compressed and stored in a large tank for later use, or to fill a hydrogen car like the FCX Clarity.

Storage in the Home Energy Station IV is a maximum of 132 liters, which it fills at a rate of 2 normal cubic meters per hour.”

Zowie.