Burner Trouble- global warming and climate change from a personal perspective

Americans are some of the lowest consumers of rice but for most of the rest of the world it is the staple crop that keeps poorer consumers alive. The doubling of rice prices, coupled with rising prices for virtually all grains, is a major concern. While the US is an exporter of rice, many countries are now restricting exports to try to control prices. In a global economy this won’t work because you cannot have a commodity priced differently in two or more places- sellers in the cheaper country will find a way to sell in the more expensive one (one exception to this is the price of sugar in the US, held artificially high and protected from cheaper exports to the benefit of a few wealthy US sugar producers- a rant for another place!).

Rice, as a crop, is exceptionally sensitive to climate changes. Even a slight warming trend will kill off a crop and this is happening in traditional rice-growing areas worldwide. Because of the unique growing conditions needed for rice (water paddies) you cannot simply replant at a more suitable location. Combined with exploding energy and fuel costs, this forces prices up. It is not a small matter- people will starve.

The climate is a closed system. Changes have wide-reaching and sometimes unpredictable affects. Starvation will be one of them and it could change geo-politics very rapidly as hungry people are angry people.

I’ve been following this story for a few weeks. A 160 square mile ice shelf has begun collapsing in Antarctica due to warming. It is theorized that warming waters melted floating ice that protected the shelf from large wave action, causing its connection to land to be broken.

No word on its affect on ocean levels but it is probably negligible. The real danger is that this is a harbinger of larger collapses to come.

Here is a video of the collapse. A much larger shelf may be in danger of breaking up as a result of this collapse.

A team of US climate scientists using computer models has determined that there is no flexibility in how much greenhouse gas emissions we can continue to emit if we want to stop warming. The only viable goal is zero emissions. The value of this is that it gives us an unsullied goal, one that is easy to measure but very difficult to achieve. In fact I suspect the target we really have to shoot for is a negative emissions goal, one in which sequestration is an equally important part of the total number. This will be necessary to offset the growing demand for and use of energy worldwide by a rapidly growing global population. Those of us in the Western world have a responsibility to go beyond zero in our carbon emissions.

I did a little research to see if the phenomenon of deadly tornadoes during the winter months is normal or related to warming. There are differing opinions but the consensus is that tornado season can start in January in the Southern states and extremely dangerous tornadoes are not uncommon during winter months. Dot Earth has more info and stats on the frequency of dangerous storms that show little definable connection between warming and these weather phenomena.

Here in Rochester (NY) the winter pattern is much different than in the past and it is definitely a warming pattern. However this has not resulted in better weather- it has been different weather. We’ve had a lot of big fluctuations in temperatures. Tuesday it was 55 degrees F, this Sunday we will be lucky to see 10 degrees. Last week in a ten minute period the temps dropped 35 degrees.

The effects of these swings are extreme: very high winds (70 mph gusts during that rapid drop), heavy ice storm-style icing which we seldom saw before the end of March and heavy, wet lake affect snows. Most of us would much rather have a 25 degree dry humidity powder snow day anytime over 35 degree damp slush weather which has been the story most of this winter.