NASA has a devastating look at the drought being experienced this year in parts of America. It is rated at the worst level that NASA tracks. Be sure to check out the images and maps- they are frightening. If this isn’t a repeat of the Dust Bowl experienced during the Depression in the 1930s I don’t know what is.

Worldchanging has a great post on new terms coming out of the climate energy crisis. One of them, Super-spikes, refers to circumstances where change occurs very rapidly due to a cascading effect. In a previous post I talked about how rising gas prices were adding to indebtedness as large car and SUV owners see the value of their vehicles plummet. This an example of how a super-spike works, in this case rapid rise of energy costs doing a serious number on the economy. Another example is the implosion of financial markets as liquidity dried up due to fears about the viability of banks and mortgage lenders.

The problem with super-spikes is that they are often unpredictable in the speed and range of their effect. Given that we’ve been living with our heads in the sand, we’ve missed the window of slowing things gradually and easing into a new worldview. Instead we’re in the super-spike model where change will be catastrophic with no amount of wealth making any difference in our ability to change. We cannot throw dollars, technology or science at the problem and expect a neat solution. Instead we will be fighting trench warfare for the foreseeable future.

Another example of a super-spike is the current fire season in California. Already the worst season on record even though it is really just starting, there are hundreds of fires burning thousands of square miles of forest. This shows another characteristic of super-spikes: They are exponential- which means the effects multiply at very rapid rates once a critical mass is reached. It is literally a wildfire effect.

A big part of the problem is that politicians are very poorly equipped to deal with super-spikes as we saw with Katrina and 9/11. They stall, hoping to pass responsibility onto the next Congress, President or City Council. Unfortunately super-spikes require immediate, decisive action.

Finally, super-spikes force us into a reactive position where we are so busy responding to immediate threats that we have no breathing room to build a strategic response. The politicians currently in office and previous Republican Presidents back to Nixon, with their caving in to energy and automotive lobbies, have made it impossible to develop a strategic, long term response to climate change. Instead we are literally putting out fires.

Americans are some of the lowest consumers of rice but for most of the rest of the world it is the staple crop that keeps poorer consumers alive. The doubling of rice prices, coupled with rising prices for virtually all grains, is a major concern. While the US is an exporter of rice, many countries are now restricting exports to try to control prices. In a global economy this won’t work because you cannot have a commodity priced differently in two or more places- sellers in the cheaper country will find a way to sell in the more expensive one (one exception to this is the price of sugar in the US, held artificially high and protected from cheaper exports to the benefit of a few wealthy US sugar producers- a rant for another place!).

Rice, as a crop, is exceptionally sensitive to climate changes. Even a slight warming trend will kill off a crop and this is happening in traditional rice-growing areas worldwide. Because of the unique growing conditions needed for rice (water paddies) you cannot simply replant at a more suitable location. Combined with exploding energy and fuel costs, this forces prices up. It is not a small matter- people will starve.

The climate is a closed system. Changes have wide-reaching and sometimes unpredictable affects. Starvation will be one of them and it could change geo-politics very rapidly as hungry people are angry people.

I’ve been following this story for a few weeks. A 160 square mile ice shelf has begun collapsing in Antarctica due to warming. It is theorized that warming waters melted floating ice that protected the shelf from large wave action, causing its connection to land to be broken.

No word on its affect on ocean levels but it is probably negligible. The real danger is that this is a harbinger of larger collapses to come.

Here is a video of the collapse. A much larger shelf may be in danger of breaking up as a result of this collapse.