The Star in Toronto has a front page article about the dire water situation in America’s Southwest, the fastest growing region in the country. They predict a mass exodus to the water-rich areas of the Northeast as these new Southwesterners discover that, while they’ve built 300 golf courses and endless housing developments, they have been ignoring a basic fact: there is no water to support the huge population of this region.

The article is comprehensive and a must-read if you live in our area. Water is going to be the most valuable commodity on Earth, replacing petroleum products. Mass migrations have always followed water since the beginning of time. In spite of all our technology, we cannot make the Colorado river rise and water the entire Southwest (including Mexico which is being shortchanged drastically by our growth).

You think we have immigration issues now? Wait till people realize where the water is….

Tip of the the hat to Franke, our erstwhile Canadian correspondent! (that’s all the links you get this week!)

Add-on: New Scientist cites a study that amalgamates 92 computer simulations using 14 global circulation models and compares these with actual rainfall data from around the world to conclude that changes in water distribution are the major effect of climate change:

‘The findings are important, Zwiers says, because “as humans, our activities are much more constrained by limits of water than by temperature (italics mine). In places where agriculture is marginal, it will become more marginal in the future”.

From the article:
‘Seager’s own research has shown that, in addition to the trends shown by Zwiers’ team, there will also be a significant drying of areas in the northern subtropics, including the US southwest and the Mediterranean.’

Franke sent me a link to this very cool interactive map that allows you to play with various climate change scenarios for the Province of Ontario. This is very relevant to me as Rochester is essentially a part of the same climate.

Khoi Vinh writes about the desirability of things that are worn and through that wear are improved. They represent a history of use. The word he seeks (but does not use) is patina. A patina is the gradual wearing of an object until it achieves a personal cohesive feel and appearance. Any antiques dealer will tell you that legitimate patina on a piece is a major factor in its value- those who refinish are destroying the evidence of years of existence and loving usage.
The design of things for temporary use is one that we simply cannot continue to pursue. New buildings are a prime example. In my area a monstrosity of a restaurant called The Cheesecake Factory is being built. This huge temple to overeating is being constructed to last a good ten years at the outside. Its metal frame sheathed in foam plastic and sprayed with a substance designed to make it look like stone, phony sculptures and architectural details betray a cynicism that is breathtaking: We’ll build it cheap, milk it until the novelty wears off, tear it down and build the next novelty building.
The problems here are multi-fold: Disposability extends to things once championed as being ‘built for the ages’. Landfills will have to encompass buildings that are being rebuilt every decade instead of every hundred years. The generation growing up as children now will see nothing recognizable from their youth just a few years from now with the resultant sense of dislocation trailing them for a lifetime. Environmentally, this kind of thing is a disaster, not just because of the disposability but because it flies in the face of sustainability, a critical line we must draw in the sand to survive climate change and population growth.
I’ll never set foot in the place.

Khoi’s piece wonders if his iPhone could acquire a patina of experience. This device is far more sustainable than many gadgets because it is easily software upgradable, a good first step in changing our disposable mindset. I can imagine the day when owning a ‘first-gen’ iPhone might have some cachet. One can hope.

The Toronto Star notices a footnote to the IPCC report that states that it did not take into account recent observations of the movement of fresh water in polar ice. Now a team led by James Hansen, NASA’s head of climate policy, says there is a strong indication that their could be a non-linear response to warming that could trigger precipitously high ocean levels in decades rather than centuries. This response, should it occur, would be beyond our ability to do anything about it. Similar events have taken place in very short periods many times over the past 400,000 years according to ice core samples.
The only way we have of possibly holding off this possibility is to hold total increases in temperature rise to 1 degree centigrade over the next 100 years- this will not happen in today’s political climate.

Tighten your seat belts- it’s going to be a bumpy ride.