Burner Trouble- global warming and climate change from a personal perspective

With oil hitting the $120/barrel mark today and local gas prices here in Rochester hovering around the $4 level, Dan Dorfman of the NY Post is predicting prices reaching $7-10 gallon by next year based on a move of oil prices over the $200 level.

A number of things reinforce this beyond those things he covers in his op-ed piece. First, much of the world’s oil production takes place in extremely unstable geopolitical regions. Exxon Mobil has shut down its 800,000 barrel a day Nigerian sources due to strikes. A UK union strike has shut down a BP oil pipeline that supplies one quarter of that country’s oil. Oil production in Iraq is corrupt and undependable due to the war, Iraqi incompetence and the US failure to modernize and repair war damaged facilities. Venezuala’s Chavez sees oil as a weapon to advance his nutty authoritarian agenda. And on and on.

Demand worldwide has skyrocketed and this will only increase. It appears that we have reached the tipping point on oil energy costs. A doubling of fuel prices means a doubling of the cost of virtually everything else except wages. And there is no going back.

“Forever is composed of nows”

Emily Dickinson

Honda thinks my new Civic will be worth $12,000 three years from now. I don’t think so. Here’s why.

Gas is inevitably going up up up because of emerging, energy-hungry markets in Asia and the rest of the world.

Higher Demand+ Limited Supply= Higher Prices.

A car that gets ‘only’ 25/36 MPG won’t be in demand.

New car technology, including plug-in hybrids, will be the standard because the demand will be intense and the technology exists now.

As the Car Lady pointed out in a recent comment, leasing is definitely the way to go right now because of these factors. Things are changing so fast that you can’t risk owning an expensive piece of equipment that will become outdated before it is even paid for.

Welcome to the future.

Americans are some of the lowest consumers of rice but for most of the rest of the world it is the staple crop that keeps poorer consumers alive. The doubling of rice prices, coupled with rising prices for virtually all grains, is a major concern. While the US is an exporter of rice, many countries are now restricting exports to try to control prices. In a global economy this won’t work because you cannot have a commodity priced differently in two or more places- sellers in the cheaper country will find a way to sell in the more expensive one (one exception to this is the price of sugar in the US, held artificially high and protected from cheaper exports to the benefit of a few wealthy US sugar producers- a rant for another place!).

Rice, as a crop, is exceptionally sensitive to climate changes. Even a slight warming trend will kill off a crop and this is happening in traditional rice-growing areas worldwide. Because of the unique growing conditions needed for rice (water paddies) you cannot simply replant at a more suitable location. Combined with exploding energy and fuel costs, this forces prices up. It is not a small matter- people will starve.

The climate is a closed system. Changes have wide-reaching and sometimes unpredictable affects. Starvation will be one of them and it could change geo-politics very rapidly as hungry people are angry people.

I’ve been waiting for this one since it has always seemed to that the potential of kinetic energy generated by humans has been ignored. With nanotech, scientists have discovered how to make fabric that generates electricity from the movement of the wearer. As usual, they offer up the ability to charge a phone while moving around. But what if the charge was used to warm or cool the wearer? When working hard you’d either generate heat when it was cold out or cool yourself when it was hot. Clothing technology could have big affects on energy use…