And I’m wondering what price will initiate real change. The recent protests in Burma against the military oppressive government weren’t triggered by human rights abuses, they were the result of the government removing their artificially low gas prices (under 10 cents a gallon). Overnight it became virtually impossible to afford to drive. This triggered an entire country to rise and confront their government on a wide range of issues.

Recent earnings reports from the big oil companies had their results down sharply from the year before (when they recorded the highest profits in history for any kind of company). Ask yourself why? My answer?

They have been intentionally keeping gas prices at the pump from rising as oil prices have risen because they know the social implications of a sharp rise. One economist estimates that a $10 rise in oil should increase retail gas prices by 2.2 cents a gallon. Oil has risen almost $50/gallon without a related rise in gas prices over the past year. However, on the heels of these earnings reports and the extremely unstable political situation in the Middle East (Kurds and Turks fighting, Musharraf showing his true thug nature, Israel and Hamas fighting, sword-rattling between us and Iran…) we’re finally seeing prices rise. High test today was $3.47! Now these are New York state prices that include high taxes but…

So oil is nearing $100/barrel which puts the true cost, adjusted for inflation, higher than at our worst point during the Arab oil crisis of the seventies. I’m old enough to remember gas lines, rationing and an uptake in public transportation. I imagine that these things won’t happen until we hit $5 because we’re slightly more efficient mileage-wise than we were then. But only slightly, thanks to the insane lobbying to keep gas-guzzling behemoths legal by the US auto industry.

We could easily be driving 100 MPG vehicles today. If we were, we wouldn’t be at war in the Middle East, we’d be in a position to tell the Saudis to stop this fundamentalist craziness, we’d be an example in fighting climate change for the rest of the world and we’d be creating a better world for our grandchildren.

So bring on the $5/gallon gas if that’s what it takes to wake us up.

BTW, GM posted a $39 billion dollar loss today. This would never have happened if they had any real strategic long-term planning instead of the afore-mentioned lobbying and reliance on old technology instead of innovation.

Think about it.

“They’re moving everybody to the Iran desk,” one recently retired C.I.A. official said. “They’re dragging in a lot of analysts and ramping up everything. It’s just like the fall of 2002”—the months before the invasion of Iraq, when the Iraqi Operations Group became the most important in the agency. He added, “The guys now running the Iranian program have limited direct experience with Iran. In the event of an attack, how will the Iranians react? They will react, and the Administration has not thought it all the way through.”

This freaks me out: Read Seymour Hersh’s New Yorker piece on the extensive ramp-up of Iran war planning in the White House and then send the article to everyone you know. These people are completely insane.

Money Quote from an unnamed intelligence official:

“Cheney doesn’t give a rat’s ass about the Republican worries, and neither does the President”

“SHIJIAZHUANG, China — Hundreds of feet below ground, the water supply for this provincial capital of more than two million people is steadily running out. Municipal wells have already drained two-thirds of the local groundwater, and the water table is sinking fast.

Above ground, this city in the North China Plain is having a party. Economic growth topped 11 percent last year. Population is rising. One new upscale housing development is advertising waterfront property on lakes filled with pumped groundwater. Another half-built complex, the Arc de Royal, is rising above one of the lowest points in the city’s water table.”

1 in 500 people in China have unfettered access to safe drinking water. The NYTimes article quoted above basically says that developers are building like crazy without considering availability of water. When the billions of people in China without water start looking for it there will be a major economic panic. Unlike oil, we cannot live without water. Disease spreads rapidly in water-depleted areas because you cannot prevent the spread of germs. There is no international water distribution system and water-reclamation technology is woefully backward and inefficient.
These factors and many more set the stage for economic wars over what should be this planet’s most bountiful and valued resource. Water issues are going to sneak up on us and there is no giant industry associated with them to hide the problem through disinformation campaigns designed to maximize profit opportunities.
Here in the US water is taken for granted in most areas, especially the northeast where I live. Yet we are in the midst of a severe drought right now that has lasted all summer and now is going into fall.