I’ve long believed that political solutions to the climate crisis will be limited in their impact primarily because of the very short attention span of most politicians, i.e. until their next election and due to the influence peddlars in DC, most of whom are ex-politicos. If we’re going to solve this huge global problem then the markets will have to be the drivers of change.

One big factor in this is our own pocketbooks- we know from the oil crisis in the seventies that it took average Americans screaming bloody murder over gas prices and shortages to see any big change in energy policies. So what will it take now? Let’s look at where gas prices might need to go to drive change.

Gas at the pump prices are about $.30/gallon higher on average than six months ago. assuming an average MPH of 23 this means it costs us about $.013 more per mile to drive. If you drive an average of 1200 miles per month, this increase cost you $15.60 more per month than you would have paid six months ago. Probably not enough to really anger a lot of people in the US.

If we’re at $3.30/gallon now, at what price point do we start getting concerned and/or angry? $4/gallon gas would take another $36.40 out of our monthly budgets (on top of that 15.60). Is this a price tipping point? How about $5/gallon- another $52./month? That might do it.

Admittedly, this is a simplistic calculation. Let’s look a little further. There are approximately 200 million licensed drivers in the US, driving 240 million registered passenger vehicles. If these 200 million drivers are each shelling out an extra $1200/year for fuel (based on $5/gallon pricing), that’s $240 billion that is not entering the ecomomy- it’s being sucked up by the oil industry. Is a quarter of a trillion dollars in lost purchasing power, annually, enough to wake this country up? I sure hope so because it’s coming. They’re already there in Europe.

Finally some other related stories: The recent riots in Myanmar (aka Burma) were triggered by the government removing subsidies on gas prices. They went from pennies a gallon to dollars a gallon overnight and the country exploded. In Venezuela, nut case dictator Hugo Chavez (I’m a liberal but I don’t buy into this guy for a second- nothing but a petty tyrant), subsidizes gas so the populace only pays $.07/gallon. This is the classic ‘bread and circuses’ tactic used to keep the populace blissfully unaware of reality.

Oil is never, ever going to cost less, no matter what new fields are found. We have to change our entire society to end our dependence, quitting cold turkey so to speak.

The Wall Street Journal, which has had some of the best reporting on climate change issues weirdly offset by their insanely unscientific (ignorant) editorial stance, has a story today on the Peak Oil theory. Unfortunately it’s locked behind their paid sub firewall (another quandary- I support Rupert Murdoch in his plans to open up the WSJ online).

Peak Oil theory says that there is a point where we have taken 50% of the available oil out of the earth and consumed it. At this point the supply diminishes until none remains. The oil industry has consistently claimed they can pull 120 million barrels/day through 2050 even though others were sceptical. This has changed. The WSJ article quotes OPEC officials and oil executives who now say we may hit Peak Oil as soon as 2010-2015. The reality is that our current demand exceeds 180 million barrels per day so we’re already overstrained for capacity. This is a major call to action by those who have had a vested interest in keeping the oil economy in place.

The problem is the inherent problems with the way oil consumption and mining works. In the first 50% we’ve been skimming the low hanging fruit, taking out the most profitable and easily accessed half of the supply. The remaining 50% will get increasingly more difficult and costly to acquire. This means can’t blithely assume we have say another 50 years to fix the problem. What we can assume is an economy crippled by major increases in fuel costs in just a few years. In other words this is it- we have to stop pretending that conservation is a choice rather than a necessity. The oil people have done the math and realized that they better start preparing us for dire circumstances…

BTW, that theory of usage is way out of whack- with India, China and other countries becoming huge consumers of oil our total global needs are skyrocketing far beyond our ability to refine. This is another acceleration factor. $8/gallon anyone?

“Water rationing has hit the capital. Car washing and lawn watering are prohibited within city limits. Harvests in the region have dropped by 15-30%. By the end of summer, local reservoirs and dams were holding 5% of their capacity.

Oops, that’s not Atlanta, or even the southeastern U.S. That’s Ankara, Turkey, hit by a fierce drought and high temperatures that also have had southern and southwestern Europe in their grip.”

“Based on the record of the last seven years, we can take it for granted that the Bush administration hasn’t the slightest desire to glance down; that no one in FEMA who matters has given the situation the thought it deserves; and that, on this subject, as on so many others, top administration officials are just hoping to make it to January 2009 without too many more scar marks. But, if not the federal government, shouldn’t somebody be asking? Shouldn’t somebody check out what’s actually down there?”

“To find even tentative answers to such questions you have to leave the mainstream. Amy Goodman of Democracy Now!, for example, interviewed paleontologist and author of The Weather Makers: The History and Future Impact of Climate Change, Tim Flannery recently on the topic of a “world on fire.” Flannery offered the following observation:

“It’s not just the Southeast of the United States. Europe has had its great droughts and water shortages. Australia is in the grip of a drought that’s almost unbelievable in its ferocity. Again, this is a global picture. We’re just getting much less usable water than we did a decade or two or three decades ago. It’s a sort of thing again that the climate models are predicting. In terms of the floods, again we see the same thing. You know, a warmer atmosphere is just a more energetic atmosphere. So if you ask me about a single flood event or a single fire event, it’s really hard to make the connection, but take the bigger picture and you can see very clearly what’s happening.”

Great comprehensive post from Tom Engelhardt on the reality of water issues. These are just a few of the many quotable facts in his post.

As I watch the candidates on both sides dither over climate change I feel more and more strongly that a Gore run may be critical.

This came in the email today (for anyone in California reading this):

Help Us Put Gore on California Ballot
Dear Fellow Al Gore Supporter,

“First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win.”
- Mahatma Gandhi

In an interview with Rolling Stone magazine just after he won the Noble Peace Prize, Al Gore was asked what he had to say to those of us who are working to bring him into the race. Here is a part of his answer: “If I do get back in the political system in the future – well, keep that energy stored up and let’s have a go at it then.” A few days before, Gore’s Chief of Staff, Roy Neel, said that Gore has not ruled out a run in the future and then defined “future” as “after today.”

The campaign to put Al Gore’s name on the California ballot is a very significant stepping stone to getting Gore into the race. But we’re running out of time. We need to raise funds to hire help in collecting signatures in our rural, red congressional districts. You can help. Please make a contribution today.

http://www.california4gore.org/contribute

Since October 8, volunteers across the California have been gathering the signatures of registered Democrats on Nomination Papers issued by the California Secretary of State nominating Al Gore’s name to be placed on the February 5 California presidential primary ballot. We have been slowed by the fires. We have also been slowed in the rural districts, where Democrats are spread out and we have fewer volunteers.

We cannot reach everyone who supports Al Gore and wants to have their voice be heard without your help, We have less than four weeks to collect 500 signatures in every congressional district. We will need to use professional petition circulaters on a spot-basis. This requires money. Please help us raise enough money to put Gore on the California primary ballot. Give whatever you can.

http://www.california4gore.org/contribute

There are 370 Democratic delegates at stake in the California primary. Al Gore polls a strong second place in California as an undeclared candidate. Putting Gore’s name on the ballot will give Californian Democrats a loud voice that will be heard across the nation. Please help us to make it happen, now.

http://www.california4gore.org/contribute

Thanks so much,

Roy Gayhart
Organizer
California Draft Gore
www.california4gore.org
858-581-1024