According to the International Herald Tribune, New York City has a real problem and there is no simple solution. In this article about NY’s reaction to rising ocean levels, a few facts stood out (note that I referenced ‘facts’ not speculation). First, all of the home insurers are changing their business models radically to protect against flood and hurricane losses. For example, Allstate will no longer renew homeowner’s policies in eight downstate, waterfront counties including the NYC area. This may represent the most concentrated chunk of premium waterfront residential real estate in the world. They’re no longer taking that bet. Last fall I drove down the Jersey shore from Atlantic City and the housing is impressive. Also impressive is the fact that all of it is built practically at sea level on what are obviously reclaimed dunes and salt marshes. Now it is increasingly difficult to insure this property which, in turn, means you can’t mortgage it.
The second fact is that lower Manahattan is built on sand so fine you can’t pile it up on a table- it just slides off. For the many older buildings whose foundations rest on sand (like all the brownstones) this means that a single flood event could wash away their foundations, leaving them uninhabitable. With a five inch rise in ocean levels predicted by 2030 and increasingly intense hurricane seasons this is a real possibility.
The ’solutions’ are equally drastic. A thirty foot high wall wide enough for a four lane highway around Manhattan? I doubt those who paid a very high premium for waterfront property are going to go for that.
New York is one of my favorite places. If you haven’t been, you have to go- it’s an amazing testament to the vitality of humanity. However, when you look at it from the perspective of climate change it is a very vulnerable place. Things could change there very quickly.