It’s obviously not $3.00 or even $4.00 a gallon because we’re hitting those prices nationwide (today the average is around $3.30, in the Bay Area I understand they’re seeing gas over $4.00). So how high does it have to go before people start changing their lifestyle?
The circumference of the earth is 28,000 miles. The average American driver drives 12-15,000 miles each year. Is there a reason why we’re all driving halfway around the planet every year? This is simply insane, especially when you consider that we’re typically alone in our cars during our circumnavigation.
The craziness gets worse when you look at what we drive. Tiny housewives driving Yukons and Escalades are typical in my neighborhood. These things are trucks designed to carry tons of cargo. When you ask someone about why they drive one the answer around here (where there is lots of water) is towing my boat. Yet I know no one who tows their boat more than twice a year. The other answer is ‘I feel safer’ even though the safety record of these things is terrible. The reality is that these kinds of justifications are the fantasy reasons we’re using to justify a selfish act. So, at what point do gas prices burst the bubble?
Tipping points are a nice concept but this one has no simple resolution. The SUVs are not going to disappear, public transport is not going step up, our houses are not going to magically move closer to our workplaces, stores and schools and our suburbs are not going to deal with this. NYC and London can charge drivers during high traffic periods to cut congestion and push people to public transport. However. the average American city has terrible public transport that is associated with poverty or even decent transport that is associated with poverty- the association remains.
We’re not just addicted to gas, our entire society has been reorganized around its ready accessibility. Car ownership is an indicator of class. In the suburb I live in people on bus stops are laborers or disabled people. My neighbors are not going to take a bus to work.
This makes reaching the tipping point problematic. I suspect that even at $6 or $8.00 a gallon people out here are not going to stop driving. They will buy more efficient cars, they may cut down on unneccesary trips but I don’t think they’ll hop on a bus.