The Wall Street Journal, which has had some of the best reporting on climate change issues weirdly offset by their insanely unscientific (ignorant) editorial stance, has a story today on the Peak Oil theory. Unfortunately it’s locked behind their paid sub firewall (another quandary- I support Rupert Murdoch in his plans to open up the WSJ online).

Peak Oil theory says that there is a point where we have taken 50% of the available oil out of the earth and consumed it. At this point the supply diminishes until none remains. The oil industry has consistently claimed they can pull 120 million barrels/day through 2050 even though others were sceptical. This has changed. The WSJ article quotes OPEC officials and oil executives who now say we may hit Peak Oil as soon as 2010-2015. The reality is that our current demand exceeds 180 million barrels per day so we’re already overstrained for capacity. This is a major call to action by those who have had a vested interest in keeping the oil economy in place.

The problem is the inherent problems with the way oil consumption and mining works. In the first 50% we’ve been skimming the low hanging fruit, taking out the most profitable and easily accessed half of the supply. The remaining 50% will get increasingly more difficult and costly to acquire. This means can’t blithely assume we have say another 50 years to fix the problem. What we can assume is an economy crippled by major increases in fuel costs in just a few years. In other words this is it- we have to stop pretending that conservation is a choice rather than a necessity. The oil people have done the math and realized that they better start preparing us for dire circumstances…

BTW, that theory of usage is way out of whack- with India, China and other countries becoming huge consumers of oil our total global needs are skyrocketing far beyond our ability to refine. This is another acceleration factor. $8/gallon anyone?