With oil hitting the $120/barrel mark today and local gas prices here in Rochester hovering around the $4 level, Dan Dorfman of the NY Post is predicting prices reaching $7-10 gallon by next year based on a move of oil prices over the $200 level.

A number of things reinforce this beyond those things he covers in his op-ed piece. First, much of the world’s oil production takes place in extremely unstable geopolitical regions. Exxon Mobil has shut down its 800,000 barrel a day Nigerian sources due to strikes. A UK union strike has shut down a BP oil pipeline that supplies one quarter of that country’s oil. Oil production in Iraq is corrupt and undependable due to the war, Iraqi incompetence and the US failure to modernize and repair war damaged facilities. Venezuala’s Chavez sees oil as a weapon to advance his nutty authoritarian agenda. And on and on.

Demand worldwide has skyrocketed and this will only increase. It appears that we have reached the tipping point on oil energy costs. A doubling of fuel prices means a doubling of the cost of virtually everything else except wages. And there is no going back.

“The idea is to capture the sun’s heat. Heat, unlike electric current, is something that industry knows how to store cost-effectively. For example, a coffee thermos and a laptop computer’s battery store about the same amount of energy, said John S. O’Donnell, executive vice president of a company in the solar thermal business, Ausra. The thermos costs about $5 and the laptop battery $150, he said, and “that’s why solar thermal is going to be the dominant form.”

As oil prices skyrocket and technology makes breakthroughs, our ability to generate clean, sustainable energy becomes more and more viable. However the big roadblock to technologies like solar and wind is that they do not run 24/7 like water or nuclear, meaning they are an undependable source unless we can find ways to store the energy during those cloudy, windless days and dark nights. Battery tech has been a major stumbling point because of costs and inefficiency (much of the energy is lost during storage). As the above quote from today’s excellent NYTimes coverage of storage challenges notes, there are entirely new ways to look at storage that, in turn, have made new energy sources viable. One example is the focusing of solar heat by a field of hi-tech mirrors onto a tower full of water and heavy salts. During the day this heat powers steam turbines, during the night the stored heat in the tower keeps those turbines turning.

Read the article- it is easy to be a doomsayer during this rapidly expanding crisis but there are truly great things coming out of this scenario, great in the long term.

Greenwashing is slang for disinformation campaigns created to make a company or organization appear to be green when in fact they are not.

As expected the primary (red) areas are cities including my fair city of Rochester, NY. There is also a video which shows the paths the emissions take, though I’m not certain why this matters- it is a global problem, not a regional one.